NLDS Game 4s Wednesday: Dodgers One Win From a Third Straight NLCS, Padres Fight to Force Game 5

Tuesday, October 6, 2026 — Two Game 4s, two very different kinds of pressure. On Wednesday night, the Dodgers walk into Truist Park with Tyler Glasnow on the mound and one win separating them from a third consecutive National League Championship Series — and, beyond it, a chase at history no National League team has ever completed: three straight World Series titles. A few hours later, the Padres walk out at Petco Park with no margin left at all, an undecided starter, and a closer still away from the team. One night, four teams, and the entire National League pennant race could look completely different by Thursday morning.

Here is what to watch in both NLDS Game 4s — plus the two ALDS closers on the Wednesday slate.

Dodgers at Braves: Glasnow vs. Mahle, with Atlanta's season on the line

The Dodgers have treated October like it owes them something for three straight years, and Tuesday's 3-1 win in Game 3 was the latest payment. Yoshinobu Yamamoto spun seven innings of one-run ball with a postseason career-high 10 strikeouts, Kiké Hernández and Freddie Freeman went deep in the fourth off Chris Sale, and now the two-time defending champions are one win from a third straight NLCS. Wednesday's assignment goes to Tyler Glasnow, who has been the Dodgers' ace-in-waiting all season and gets the biggest start of his year with a chance to close out a series.

Opposite him: Tyler Mahle, the Braves' deadline acquisition, pitching for Atlanta's season. Mahle told reporters Tuesday that the abdominal pull he suffered in last week's wild-card loss to Philadelphia is a non-issue — and he'll need to be right, because the Braves' offense has gone quiet at the worst possible time. Atlanta is 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position over the last two games' key stretches, struck out 12 times Tuesday, and has yet to solve the Dodgers' October formula: elite starting pitching plus the long ball. Every Dodgers run this series has come on a homer.

Freeman's milestone, Rojas' injury, Acuña's knee

Freeman keeps writing himself into October history. His 399-foot solo shot Tuesday was his 18th career postseason home run, tying him for 10th on the all-time list — and it came in his first postseason game in Atlanta since leaving the Braves five years ago, the franchise where he spent 12 seasons and won the 2021 World Series. Watch whether Atlanta pitches around him Wednesday with first base open; the Dodgers' lineup construction has made the bottom of the order the danger zone anyway.

The Dodgers' worry: Miguel Rojas was removed in the eighth inning Tuesday after appearing to injure himself on a swing, and his status for Wednesday is the subplot to watch. Tommy Edman finished the at-bat. If Rojas can't go, Dave Roberts loses the right-handed bat he specifically inserted to combat lefties — and the defensive steadiness at short and third the Dodgers lean on late in games.

Atlanta has its own health question. Ronald Acuña Jr. has been DHing with a sore right knee from a weekend slide, with Lane Thomas in right field. The Braves need his bat in the lineup — he's their best chance at changing the math in a hurry — but every awkward step is a reminder of how thin the margin is.

Brewers at Padres: San Diego's starter mystery, Milwaukee's second chance to close

The Padres refused to die Tuesday night — Jake Cronenworth's 368-foot fifth-inning homer, a shattered-bat insurance run, and Xander Bogaerts' game-ending double play added up to a 4-3 win that trimmed Milwaukee's lead to 2-1. But surviving and advancing are different things, and Game 4's pitching decision will tell you how much the Padres believe in their margin. They're choosing between Robbie Ray (the Game 1 starter, available on regular rest) and veteran Walker Buehler — or, lurking behind both options, an opener-and-bullpen game.

Ray would be the conventional call: a former Cy Young winner with swing-and-miss stuff, pitching at home with the crowd behind him. Buehler would be the October call: the man has made a career out of these exact nights. Either way, the bullpen behind them is the real question. Mason Miller remains on the postseason paternity list, which means the late innings belong to a committee — and to Michael King, who came out of the bullpen to close Tuesday after starting Game 2. How much does King have left? San Diego may find out the hard way.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, gets its second chance to end this thing and avoid the trip back home for a Game 5. The Brewers have won this series' margins all October — the roof-ball break in Game 1, Chourio's walk-off in Game 2 — and Tuesday was the first time the inches went against them. Pat Murphy's club has been the steadier team for three games; one more win and it's the NLCS. But Petco Park at 47,708 strong, smelling blood after Tuesday's escape, is a different animal than American Family Field. The Brewers know it.

What a Game 5 Friday would look like

If both series go the distance, Friday sets up beautifully: Game 5 in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers would have Tarik Skubal lined up — about as stressful a sentence as October produces — and Game 5 back in Milwaukee, where the Brewers would get their ace at home with the crowd. Neither favorite wants any part of that. The Dodgers haven't lost a Game 4 closeout chance all postseason; the Padres haven't won back-to-back games in this series yet. Wednesday decides which version of October we get.

Don't forget the AL: two sweeps on the table

Wednesday isn't just an NL day. The White Sox and Rays can both finish off ALDS sweeps — one win each from the ALCS, with the losers' seasons ending in front of their home crowds. The full ALDS Game 3 breakdown, matchups, and what's at stake are in our Wednesday ALDS preview. If both sweeps land, the American League picture is set before the National League even knows its finalists.