Season on the Line: Padres Turn to Walker Buehler in NLDS Game 4 Against the Brewers

SAN DIEGO — This is the part of October where there is nowhere left to hide. The Padres trail the Brewers 2-1 in the National League Division Series, they have played three straight one-run games, and tonight at Petco Park — 7:00 p.m. PT, FS1 — the season is on the line. The man holding it is Walker Buehler, the October veteran with a 3.04 career postseason ERA and a World Series-clinching save on his résumé, going up against a left-hander San Diego once drafted and then traded away: Milwaukee's Robert Gasser, who has never faced his former team.

Win, and the Padres force a Game 5 in Milwaukee on Friday with everything reset to zero. Lose, and the Brewers celebrate an NLCS berth on San Diego's field. There is no third option, and both clubhouses know it.

How we got here: three games, three one-run gut punches

This series has been decided by a single run every single night. Milwaukee took Game 1 3-2 and Game 2 4-3 — the second one a genuine heartbreaker, with Jackson Chourio's game-winning two-run single off Mason Miller capping a blown save on Sunday. The Padres finally answered Tuesday night with a 4-3 win in Game 3, and it was the kind of win that restores belief. Our full Game 3 nightcap has every detail; here is the version that matters for tonight.

Jake Cronenworth broke the tie with a fifth-inning home run, jumping a first-pitch sweeper from JoJo Romero. And then came the pitching line that made history: Michael King, who started Game 2 just two days earlier, came back and recorded a six-out save — the first pitcher since saves became an official statistic in 1969 to start a postseason game and record a two-inning save within the next two days, according to OptaSTATS. Xander Bogaerts slammed the door with a game-ending double play, short-hopping Christian Yelich's line drive, touching second and firing to first.

Milwaukee left 11 runners on base. William Contreras went 3-for-4 with a home run, Christian Yelich snapped a 19-game postseason RBI drought — and it still wasn't enough, partly because a Cooper Pratt throwing error opened the door for a San Diego run. The home team is 3-0 in this series. The Padres need that trend to hold one more night.

Buehler vs. Gasser: October pedigree against September's hottest arm

The pitching matchup is a study in contrasts. Buehler went 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA this season, but he was a different pitcher in the second half (3.62 ERA), and nobody in either clubhouse needs the playoff numbers recited: 4-4 with a 3.04 ERA across 19 career postseason appearances, 18 of them starts. When the lights get bright, Buehler has been there.

Gasser, meanwhile, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a month and hardly anyone outside Milwaukee noticed. The left-hander finished 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA, but that includes a 1.67 ERA across 27 September innings and a 1.19 ERA over his last four starts. This is the first Division Series appearance for both pitchers, and the storyline writes itself: Gasser was drafted by the Padres and dealt to the Brewers in the August 2022 Josh Hader trade. He has never faced the organization that picked him.

San Diego's lineup will be seeing him for the first time, which usually favors the pitcher early — but the Padres' advance scouts have been breaking down four weeks of nearly unhittable September film. Something has to give.

The bullpen is whole again — and that might be the real story

Wednesday's biggest development might not be the starting matchup at all. San Diego activated Mason Miller from the paternity list before Game 4 — he had been placed on it Tuesday, roughly 45 minutes before Game 3's first pitch — and Adrian Morejon (shoulder) is expected back after missing Game 3. Wandy Peralta was removed from the roster to make room.

Miller's return is complicated. He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA this postseason, and Sunday's Game 2 loss is on his line — the blown save that ended with Chourio's two-run single. But a full-strength Miller is still the most electric arm in the San Diego bullpen, and having him back alongside a presumably available Morejon gives the Padres the late-inning options they didn't have Tuesday. King, fresh off his historic six-out save, is presumably down, which makes Miller's availability that much more important. Manager Craig Stammen's bullpen math just got a lot more flexible.

Milwaukee's road problem

The Brewers have now lost 12 consecutive road playoff games, a streak that stretches back to the 2018 NLCS. They can end it tonight and punch their NLCS ticket in the process — but the building will be against them, the home team has won all three games in this series, and the man on the mound for San Diego knows a thing or two about winning in October on the road.

Here is the twist: Buehler, pitching for the Dodgers, took the loss in the Brewers' last road playoff win — Game 3 of the 2018 NLCS. Eight years later, he gets to stand in the way of Milwaukee ending the drought. Baseball has a sense of humor.

What I'm watching

Three things. First, the first inning. Gasser facing his former organization for the first time, in a clinching game on the road, in front of a roaring Petco Park crowd — how he handles the first 15 pitches tells you everything. If he is locating the fastball and the changeup is falling off the table, the Padres are in for a long night.

Second, San Diego's approach with runners on. The Padres manufactured just enough in Game 3; they cannot count on another Cooper Pratt throwing error. Cronenworth's homer was the difference Tuesday — somebody has to be that guy tonight.

Third, the seventh and eighth innings. If this game is close late — and every game in this series has been — the Padres' bullpen math with Miller and Morejon back is the whole ballgame. Milwaukee left 11 runners on base Tuesday. You don't get to do that twice and survive October.

The Brewers have been the better team for most of this series. But October doesn't care about “most of.” It cares about tonight. And tonight, San Diego has Walker Buehler, a restored bullpen, and a building that hasn't stopped shaking since Tuesday. First pitch, 7:00 p.m. PT. More MLB postseason coverage is right here.