Jacksonville has always believed before it had reason to. The Jaguars arrived in 1995 as an expansion team alongside the Carolina Panthers, and almost immediately they were good — which, in retrospect, might have been the cruelest thing that could have happened. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, with Mark Brunell throwing to Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell behind Tony Boselli's wall and Fred Taylor running wild, the Jags reached the AFC Championship Game in just their second season (1996) and went 14-2 in 1999 before falling to the Titans one game short of the Super Bowl. The fanbase learned what the top of the mountain looked like before the franchise had built a base camp. Everything since has been the long walk back.
The walk was very long. The 2000s brought mediocrity and the 2010s brought the wilderness — including the league's worst stretch of sustained losing, the tarps over the upper deck, and the annual London games that made Wembley feel like a second home while raising quiet questions about whether the team would stay in Jacksonville at all. Owner Shahid Khan, who bought the franchise in 2011, never wavered on Duval. And in 2017, lightning struck: "Sacksonville." Doug Marrone's team, powered by Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and Jalen Ramsey's swaggering secondary, bullied its way to the AFC Championship Game in New England, led the Patriots 20-10 in the fourth quarter — and lost 24-20. It remains the most painful afternoon in franchise history, the one that got away.
What followed was worse: the Blake Bortles era curdled, the roster was dismantled, and 2021 brought the Urban Meyer catastrophe — the college legend who lasted 13 games, lost the locker room and the plot simultaneously, and left the franchise as a national punchline. But the wreckage contained the seed of the revival: the first overall pick in 2021, Clemson national champion Trevor Lawrence, the most hyped quarterback prospect in a generation. His rookie year was wasted in the Meyer chaos. Then Doug Pederson arrived in 2022, and Lawrence breathed: a 9-8 season, an AFC South title, and the 31-30 wild-card comeback over the Chargers after trailing 27-0 — the third-largest comeback in playoff history, the night Duval shook. The divisional loss at Kansas City (27-20) felt like the start of something, not the end.
It wasn't — not yet. The 2023 Jaguars started 8-3 and collapsed to 9-8, missing the playoffs entirely. The 2024 team went 4-13, Pederson was fired, and Lawrence's development stalled amid injuries and dysfunction. The franchise stood at the familiar crossroads: generational quarterback, wasted years, again. Khan's answer was Liam Coen, the 39-year-old Buccaneers offensive coordinator hired before the 2025 season — and the turnaround was instant and total. Jacksonville went 13-4, won the AFC South, and set franchise records for points scored, touchdowns and points per game. Coen finished second in Coach of the Year voting to New England's Mike Vrabel (302-239), and Lawrence closed the season incandescent: 18 touchdown passes over the final seven regular-season games. The hype, for the first time, had a foundation.
And 2026 is proving it was no fluke. The Jaguars are 2-1 and alone atop the AFC South, and the numbers say contender: a league-low 12.0 points allowed per game, an offense chewing up the Browns and Patriots for 69 points, and a 10-1 record over the last 11 games dating to last season. Week 1 brought a workmanlike win over Cleveland. Week 2 brought a loss at Denver. And Week 3 brought the statement: a 35-6 demolition of the reigning AFC champion Patriots in which Lawrence threw three touchdown passes, the defense forced three turnovers and kept New England out of the end zone entirely. The win was Coen's 15th — making him the fastest coach in franchise history to 15 victories and the first NFL coach since Green Bay's Matt LaFleur in 2019-20 to win 15 of his first 20 games. The signature play said everything about where Lawrence is: second-and-goal, nothing open on his first two reads, a snap of the head to the left and a dart through a sliver of window to Jakobi Meyers for six. Sixth-year quarterback, second year in the system, seeing it faster than ever.
The supporting cast is the league's best argument for coaching and patience. With Travis Etienne Jr. gone to New Orleans in free agency, Coen handed the backfield to Bhayshul Tuten — 43 carries, 204 yards, two touchdowns, 4.7 a pop, fourth among qualified backs in PFF grade — and rebuilt the run game around multiple tight ends (second-rounder Nate Boerkircher, fifth-rounder Tanner Koziol), motion and disguise. Rookie sixth-rounder Josh Cameron has two red-zone touchdowns. The defense, meanwhile, is ferocious: Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker screaming off the edges, Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton inside, Foyesade Oluokun cleaning up at linebacker, Jourdan Lewis and Montaric Brown in the secondary. This is a complete team — top ten in points, eighth in EPA per play, first in fewest points allowed. The Jaguars can beat you 35-6 or 17-14.
Week 4 is the next exam, and it's a fascinating one: at Cincinnati, where a win would make Jacksonville 3-1 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history. The Bengals have had the Jaguars' number in the Lawrence era, and slowing Ja'Marr Chase is the week's defining question — the secondary has been ball-hawking but boom-prone, and Chase is the ultimate stress test. Win that, and the conversation stops being about whether the Jaguars are for real and starts being about seeding. Analysts are already going there: Lawrence ranks fourth among quarterbacks in PFN's QB Impact Score, and the Super Bowl word — the one Duval has whispered since 1996 — is being said out loud by people who don't usually say it.
What defines the Jaguars is the arc: the early tease, the long darkness, the almost of 2017, the Meyer embarrassment, and now — finally — the thing built right. The teal is still the teal. EverBank Stadium still has the pools and the sun and the most loyal fanbase in football, the one that sold out through 4-13 and never stopped believing the London games were a feature, not a threat. Trevor Lawrence is 26 years old, playing the best football of his career, with a coach who sees the game the way he does and a roster with no obvious hole. In Jacksonville, the question was never whether the city would show up. It was whether the team would ever be worth the faith. For the first time in franchise history, the answer might be yes — and it might stay yes for a while.
