A First-Time Champion, Guaranteed

Nobody had this bracket. The defending champion Las Vegas Aces? Swept in three. The New York Liberty, champions two years ago? Swept in three. What survived is a best-of-seven between the No. 2 seed Golden State Valkyries and the No. 4 seed Atlanta Dream — and one guarantee: whoever lifts the trophy is a first-time WNBA champion.

Golden State is here in the second season of its existence — the fastest an expansion team has ever reached the Finals — and it got here without a single superstar carrying the load. In the close-out game in Las Vegas, Kayla Thornton scored 18, Gabby Williams added 16 with eight of them in overtime, and former Aces Kiah Stokes and Tiffany Hayes put up 11 apiece. The Valkyries trailed by 11 in the second half, uncorked a 17–0 third-quarter run, and owned the overtime 16–6. Depth did that.

Atlanta arrives on a franchise-best 10-game winning streak, with one loss since Aug. 18. The Dream's defense travels: they finished at the top of the league alongside Golden State in defensive ranking, led the WNBA in steals, and forced 38 turnovers in the first two semifinal games against New York. Angel Reese — 22 points and 9 rebounds in the clincher — is in her first Finals. Jordin Canada just hung 19 points and 11 assists in a close-out game. Rhyne Howard is the release valve when a possession breaks down.

The regular season says Golden State: the Valkyries won all four meetings. The fine print says be careful — the last meeting was July 4, three of the four came during Atlanta's worst stretch of the year, and Las Vegas swept Golden State in the regular season too, right up until it didn't. The real swing factor is Allisha Gray. Atlanta's leading scorer is an availability watch entering the series, and Canada's two-way minutes get heavier if Gray is limited.

Watch the middle, too. Stokes — a three-time champion with Las Vegas — now anchors Golden State's defense, and her Finals assignment is Reese on the glass. Behind them it's a chess match between second-year head coaches: Natalie Nakase, a former Aces assistant who just eliminated her old team, against Karl Smesko, who arrived from 22 seasons at Florida Gulf Coast and has Atlanta in its fourth Finals. The first three trips (2010, 2011, 2013) all ended in sweeps. Somebody's story flips on Oct. 17.

Atlanta can't use State Farm Arena for this series — a concert and Hawks home games claim the building on all three Dream home dates — and the club was still working to lock a larger metro-Atlanta home as the series approached. Golden State's home games are set: Chase Center in San Francisco, where the Valkyries have sold out every game this season.