The Heisman Race Has a New Leader: Darian Mensah Passes Jeremiah Smith, With Notre Dame Waiting

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026 — COLLEGE FOOTBALL, THE HEISMAN RACE ENTERING NOVEMBER

The Heisman race has a new leader, and for once the change did not require the old leader to play badly. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah took the top spot in both the oddsmakers’ market and the On3 expert poll after Week 9, passing Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith — who set a Big Ten career record on Saturday and still lost ground, because his team lost its quarterback, its aura, and a game at USC. With four weeks left in the regular season, the race runs through South Bend: No. 1 Miami plays at No. 4 Notre Dame on Saturday night, and three of the top four Heisman candidates will be on the same field.

Mensah: the case is the whole season

Mensah’s candidacy is not built on one night; it is built on never having a bad one. Through nine weeks the junior has completed 80.7% of his passes for 2,425 yards with 25 touchdowns against a single interception, plus two rushing scores, according to On3, whose expert poll now ranks him No. 1 with 134 points. Saturday’s 38–35 survival at North Carolina was the latest verse: 22 of 29 for 274 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and 36 rushing yards, per On3. Sports Illustrated, citing FanDuel odds, has Mensah as the new betting favorite at +160, up from +290 a week ago — or, as SportsBettingDime put it with BetMGM numbers, a jump from +300 to +150 that moved his implied chance from roughly a quarter to roughly 40%.

What Mensah lacks is the moment. Yardbarker’s Heisman report says it plainly: his candidacy has been dulled by a lack of a signature moment, in Yardbarker’s assessment. Quarterbacks who win this trophy usually own one Saturday that everyone remembers. Saturday night in South Bend, on NBC, against a top-five team, is precisely the stage where that stops being a criticism.

Smith set a record and slid anyway

Jeremiah Smith’s Saturday, taken alone, was a Heisman Saturday. In Ohio State’s 30–18 loss at USC he caught 10 passes for 83 yards and the Buckeyes’ only touchdown — the 40th receiving touchdown of his career, breaking the Big Ten’s all-time record, according to USA Today. His season line remains enormous: 62 catches, 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games, per On3, which still ranks him No. 2 with 123 poll points.

But the Heisman is a team award wearing an individual trophy’s clothes, and Ohio State’s circumstances are dragging Smith down. Starting quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with a throwing-arm injury suffered October 17 at Indiana; freshman Luke Fahey started at USC, the Buckeyes managed one touchdown in 57-plus minutes, and a second loss dropped Ohio State to No. 11 in the AP poll and to the edge of the playoff picture. USA Today’s power rankings keep Smith at No. 1 for now but warn, in USA Today’s words, that his candidacy is in jeopardy if the Buckeyes’ offense keeps struggling without Sayin. FanDuel’s market, via Sports Illustrated, has already moved: Smith drifted from favorite to +270.

The teammate problem: Malachi Toney

The most interesting ballot problem in the country shares a huddle with the favorite. Miami receiver Malachi Toney is No. 3 in both the On3 poll (116 points) and the FanDuel market (+350, via Sports Illustrated), with 73 receptions for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns — all ACC-leading numbers, according to Yardbarker. Mensah and Toney are the best quarterback-receiver duo in college football this season, according to USA Today, and both are legitimate finalists. The risk is arithmetic: teammates split voters. The opportunity is Saturday. If Toney goes off against Notre Dame’s secondary, the receiver may jump his own quarterback — USA Today raised exactly that possibility this week.

Carr gets his audition on the same field

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is the fourth name in the market — +1200 at FanDuel via Sports Illustrated, tied with Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss — and he is the rare candidate who controls his own leap. Carr was 19 of 29 for 210 yards and two touchdowns in Notre Dame’s 35–13 win over Navy, per USA Today, and climbed from No. 9 to No. 6 in its power rankings. Beat the No. 1 team in the country at home, head-to-head against the Heisman favorite, and the math changes overnight. Chambliss, No. 4 in the On3 poll with 76 points, gets a similar stage Saturday when Ole Miss hosts No. 2 Georgia. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree rounds out the On3 top five (74 points) — a third receiver with a real path to New York, which would make this the most receiver-heavy finalist class in memory.

The dark horse and the lesson of November

Keep one eye on LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt, Yardbarker’s named dark horse: since a Week 3 loss at Ole Miss he has kept LSU’s playoff hopes alive, and the Tigers’ November — Alabama and Texas at home, Tennessee on the road — is a month-long television audition. The early-season favorites tell the other side of the story: Texas quarterback Arch Manning has struggled in his first full season as the starter, and Oregon’s Dante Moore has been ruled out for the season with a concussion, according to Bleacher Report. November is where Heisman races are not won so much as survived.

Previously Staff’s read: Right now this is Mensah’s trophy on points — the efficiency is historic, the team is unbeaten, and the market agrees. But the trophy is decided by the last impression, and the last impression gets made in South Bend on Saturday night, with his own receiver and the opposing quarterback both close enough to steal it. However it breaks, this race will not look like this on Sunday morning.