Josh Allen Is Nine Yards From 5,000. The Vikings Can’t Afford to Watch It Happen.

Two 6-1 teams close Week 9 tonight at U.S. Bank Stadium, and the smallest number in the building might be the biggest one: nine. That is how many rushing yards Josh Allen needs to reach 5,000 for his career. The man standing behind him needs 34 to get there himself. Buffalo at Minnesota kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC, and by the time it ends, first place will have moved in both conferences.

Nine yards, then 34

Allen comes in with 4,991 career rushing yards — nine short of 5,000, as NBC Sports noted this week from the Bills’ own PR figures. He averages 39 rushing yards a game this season, so one decent scramble should end the chase early. When it happens, Allen becomes the fifth quarterback in NFL history with 5,000 rushing yards, joining Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. He already owns the quarterback record for rushing touchdowns, with 87.

James Cook sits at 4,966. Cook averages 101 yards a game and better than five yards a carry, so the honest question tonight is not whether Buffalo gets a 5,000-yard rusher. It is whether Buffalo gets two in the same game.

The quarterbacks, side by side

Strip the logos away and this is the gap Minnesota has to coach around. Allen has 20 total touchdowns in seven games — 11 passing, nine rushing — and leads the league in yards per pass attempt. Wentz has thrown three touchdown passes all season, all of them across his two September appearances, completing 59 percent for 276 yards. One quarterback is the MVP frontrunner playing the best football of his life. The other is a 33-year-old backup whose last start came in Week 2. The Vikings’ defense is good enough to shrink that gap for a while. It has to shrink it for four quarters.

The best offense in football meets the best defense

Buffalo leads the NFL at 33.3 points per game. Minnesota allows 13.3, the fewest in the league, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzes at a league-leading rate — the Bills’ own site put it at 73 percent of snaps, with eight men crowding the line and the quarterback left to guess which ones are actually coming. The Vikings have 25 sacks behind that chaos.

The crack in the defense is the ground game. Minnesota allows 116 rushing yards a game, and Detroit just piled up more than 200 in last week’s 19–15 win — the Vikings’ first loss of the season. That is the exact door Allen and Cook walk through. Allen’s arm punishes exactly that, so Flores cannot simply sell out against the run. Blitz the quarterback who runs like a fullback, or sit back and let the most efficient passer in football pick his spots. Pick one.

Minnesota’s quarterback is watching from the sideline

Kyler Murray is out. He strained his hamstring on a fourth-quarter read-option run in Detroit — Pro Football Network reported the injury as a Grade 2 strain — and USA Today reported head coach Kevin O’Connell ruled him out on Thursday, calling him week-to-week. Reporting since then says it could hold him out beyond this week.

Carson Wentz gets the start, his second of the season. He has already won twice in purple — he finished the Week 1 win over Green Bay after Murray’s concussion, then started the Week 2 win over Chicago. O’Connell voiced full confidence in him this week, and Wentz kept his own plan simple when asked about Justin Jefferson: “Just get him the rock.” There is a real opening to do it. Buffalo’s defense ranks 30th against the pass.

The rest of the report cuts both ways. Minnesota is also without running back Demond Claiborne and wide receiver Jauan Jennings. Buffalo listed left tackle Dion Dawkins and guard Alec Anderson as questionable, and a backup guarding Allen’s blind side is a rough way to meet this blitz.

Somebody wakes up in a different season

Buffalo holds the AFC’s top seed at kickoff. Win, and the Bills are 7-1 and alone up there, with 5-4 New England falling further behind in the East. Lose, and they slide back into the 6-2 crowd with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

Minnesota’s swing is wilder. The Vikings lead the NFC North at 6-1, but Chicago is already 7-2 and Detroit is 6-2 holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota. Win tonight and the Vikings stay on top of the North and take the NFC’s No. 1 seed with them. Lose, and they wake up Tuesday in third place in their own division — on the morning the trade deadline hits at 4 p.m. ET, with their quarterback room the biggest question in the building. Wentz is not just starting a football game tonight. He is auditioning for what Minnesota does next.

Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points. Somebody leaves this building 7-1.

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