Manchester United's Relegation Fight Is Real — and Villa Come to Old Trafford Next

Manchester United are seventeenth. Say it plainly, because the table does: nine games played, one win, seven points, and only goal difference keeping Michael Carrick's side out of the relegation zone. This is not a slow start any more. Their own former manager looked at it this week and refused to rule out the drop — Erik ten Hag told ESPN that United being relegated is "certainly possible, because all the teams are simply strong."

Sunday is where it either turns or it gets very loud. Aston Villa come to Old Trafford (08:30 PT, Sky Sports / USA) in the last Premier League game before the international break — and the man in the away dugout is the story inside the story. Unai Emery takes charge of his 200th Premier League game on Sunday, the fifth Spaniard to reach that mark, and he does it while reports say Villa are moving to tie him to a new contract with United among the clubs credited with an interest in him. Carrick's possible successor, auditioning in Carrick's stadium, with a two-week break right behind the final whistle in which a board can act. Nobody at Old Trafford needs that spelled out.

There is a pulse, though, and it showed on Tuesday. United were 2–0 down at half-time to Roma in the Champions League, booed and wobbling, and then produced the kind of comeback this club used to keep in a drawer: Bruno Fernandes converted a re-taken penalty on 58 minutes, Matheus Cunha equalised on 83 and slammed in the winner three minutes later, then got himself sent off in stoppage time for a second yellow after tearing his shirt off in the celebrations. The 3–2 win ended a nine-game winless run in all competitions. It also bought Carrick exactly one thing — the right to be judged on Sunday instead of Tuesday.

Because in the league, nothing has moved. United are winless in seven Premier League games (four draws, three defeats), and Opta's numbers, via TNT Sports, put a frame on it: fail to beat Villa and this becomes United's worst start to a league season in more than 50 years. Their position — 17th, at least nine games in — matches their lowest since 1989-90, and they have not actually sat in the relegation zone this deep into a season since November 1986, the month Alex Ferguson arrived. One bad Sunday and that last line goes, too: the three sides below United all play this weekend, and goal difference is a thread, not a cushion.

The good news for Carrick is who is available. Cunha's dismissal was in the Champions League, so it does not touch Sunday — United's form player starts. The bad news is who is not: Lisandro Martínez is suspended after his red card in last Saturday's 2–0 defeat at Chelsea, the result that dropped United to 17th in the first place.

And Villa are nobody's soft landing. They sit 10th on 12 points, they have already beaten the champions this season — Nicolas Jackson scored twice in the 2–1 win over Manchester City at Villa Park on October 24 — and they have won their last two away games. Emery reached 100 Premier League wins in October. This is a settled, coached, confident side walking into the league's loudest crisis.

The comparison — our numbers: United: 9 played, 1 win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, 10 scored, 15 conceded, 7 points, 17th — seven league games without a win, the division's most famous name level on points with the drop zone (Crystal Palace, 18th, also on 7). Villa: 9 played, 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, 12 points, 10th — five points and seven places better off, with a win over the champions already in the bank. The gap between these two clubs, on paper, used to be a canyon. Right now it is five points — and Villa are the ones looking up.

While Sunday builds, Saturday decides who leads the league into the break. Arsenal, top on 24 points, host Hull City at the Emirates at 07:00 PT. Mikel Arteta's champions have conceded five goals all season — the league's best defence, with six clean sheets — and they are unbeaten in 46 league games against promoted sides, winning the last 17 straight. Hull, to their credit, are nobody's walkover: 11th on 11 points, a league-high five draws, and playing their 200th Premier League game. Win, and Arsenal are six clear for a few hours.

Then, at 09:30 PT, Manchester City go to the City Ground knowing exactly what they need. City are second on 21 points but hold the better goal difference (+10 to Arsenal's +9) — so if Hull pull off the shock and City win at Nottingham Forest, City go top on goal difference before the break. City arrive off back-to-back league defeats, to Villa and then 1–0 at home to Brighton, though they steadied in midweek with a 3–2 Champions League win at RB Leipzig. Forest, 19th on six points, are the strangest home team in the division: they have attempted the second-most shots in the Premier League this season and scored six goals — the fewest — and they have not scored at home at all. Four home games, zero goals. If that run reaches five, Forest become only the fourth side in Premier League history to open a season with five scoreless home games.

By Sunday night the league stops for two weeks. Arsenal or City will lead it. And at Old Trafford, one of two things will be true: Carrick will have a league win, a little air, and a case — or United will spend the international break in the relegation zone, with the man many expect to be offered the job having just beaten him in his own stadium. That is not a fixture. That is a verdict waiting for a whistle.

The weekend's three, in PT:

• Sat 07:00 — Arsenal vs Hull City, Emirates Stadium (Peacock)
• Sat 09:30 — Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, City Ground (NBC)
• Sun 08:30 — Manchester United vs Aston Villa, Old Trafford (USA)

More on the Premier League front.