Nashville Need One Point to Break Messi's Record — Cincinnati Need the Win

Sunday night at GEODIS Park was supposed to be a party. Nashville had already won the Supporters' Shield. The trophy was there. The crowd was there. And with forty minutes gone, the Red Bulls were winning 2-0, and the party was going quiet.

Then Nashville did what they have done all season. An own goal before halftime pulled one back. A second own goal levelled it late. And in the first minute of stoppage time, Cristian Espinoza swung in the ball and Sam Surridge headed home the winner, 3-2 — Surridge's 19th goal of the season, and the point total that matters more than any of them: 74.

Seventy-four is the most points any team has ever taken from an MLS regular season. It is also, right now, a shared number. Lionel Messi's Inter Miami set it in 2024. Nashville matched it on Sunday, with a game to spare — and their captain knows exactly what that spare game is for. "But now we are tied with Miami with the same points," Hany Mukhtar said after the Red Bulls win, "and we have one more game."

That game is Saturday. Decision Day. Nashville go to TQL Stadium to face FC Cincinnati at 4 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Pacific, on Apple TV, with every Eastern Conference match kicking off at once. A draw takes Nashville to 75 points and the record is theirs alone. A win takes them to 77. Lose, and they stay tied with Messi's Miami forever — champions of the season, co-owners of the record.

Understand what kind of season is asking for this. Nashville finished the year unbeaten at home, 15 wins and two draws at GEODIS Park — the 15 home wins are a league record of their own. They scored 69 goals and conceded 25, the fewest in the league, and there is a second record sitting inside Saturday's game: the mark for fewest goals conceded in a 34-game season is 26, set by Philadelphia in 2022. Keep Cincinnati out entirely and Nashville break that one too. The Shield was clinched back on October 24, a 2-0 win at Montréal with Surridge and Mukhtar scoring. Head coach B.J. Callaghan's side have had the East's top seed and home field throughout the playoffs locked up for weeks. Saturday is not about the bracket. Saturday is about the history books.

But here is why this is a game and not a coronation: Cincinnati need it more.

Cincinnati sit seventh in the East on 46 points, and seventh is the last seat that skips the Wild Card round. Win on Saturday and they are guaranteed to stay in the top seven — they could even climb to sixth. Draw or lose, and they are watching Chicago, Columbus and Orlando while their own game is still being played, hoping the math saves them from a single-elimination detour. They got here the hard way, beating Philadelphia 1-0 at this same stadium last weekend, Ayoub Jabbari scoring in the 70th minute and Roman Celentano keeping the clean sheet that clinched Cincinnati's fifth straight trip to the playoffs.

And they have the player to ruin a record chase. Evander runs Cincinnati's attack — 14 goals and a league-leading 17 assists, second in the whole league in goal contributions, behind only Messi himself. Surridge, Mukhtar and Espinoza against Evander and a home crowd that knows a loss could send its team into the Wild Card round: that is a fair fight, and Nashville know it, because they have already lived the other version of it. In August, at GEODIS, Nashville beat Cincinnati 4-0. Surridge scored. Mukhtar scored. Two substitutes finished the job late. It was Cincinnati's first shutout loss in nearly six months. None of that travels. Saturday, Nashville are the visitors, Cincinnati are desperate, and the record does not care who deserved what in August.

So the last day of the regular season gives you the cleanest possible bargain. One point makes Nashville the most productive regular-season team MLS has ever had, full stop, no tie, no asterisk. Three points keep Cincinnati out of the Wild Card round. A draw hands Nashville history and leaves Cincinnati sweating on results from three other stadiums.

Somebody at TQL Stadium on Saturday is getting exactly what they came for. The other side is getting a harder road to MLS Cup. That is Decision Day working the way it is supposed to.

Watch it: FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC, Saturday Nov 7, 1:00 PM PT / 4:00 PM ET, TQL Stadium, Apple TV. More on the MLS front.