Scoot Henderson Leads the 2023 Class Headed to Restricted Free Agency After Extension Deadline Passes

The deadline produced seven signatures — and a much longer list of players who will spend this season playing for their next contract. The NBA’s rookie-scale extension window for the 2023 draft class closed at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, and according to whynba.com’s deadline recap, 14 eligible first-round picks reached it without a deal. The headline name is Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 pick of the Portland Trail Blazers and the only top-five pick in the class who did not sign. Anthony Black (No. 6, Orlando Magic) and Bilal Coulibaly (No. 7, Washington Wizards) join him — three top-seven selections now headed toward restricted free agency next summer.

The seven who did sign are covered in our reporting on the signed deals, including Brandon Miller’s five-year, $209 million extension with Charlotte. This is the other side of the deadline.

What restricted free agency actually means

Unsigned does not mean gone. As whynba.com’s recap explains, each of these players now plays out the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. To keep matching rights next summer, his team must extend a qualifying offer between the day after the last game of the Finals and June 29. The player can then sign an offer sheet with any team, which his current team can match.

History says the incumbent usually wins. whynba.com cited research, reported by the Orlando Sentinel, on the 10 first-round classes from 2013 to 2022: 60 players signed as restricted free agents, and 37 of them — about 62 percent — re-signed with their former team. Restricted free agency is less an exit door than a second, more public round of negotiation, where a rival team may end up setting your price.

Henderson: the only top-five pick left waiting

Chris Haynes reported Monday afternoon, via whynba.com, that Portland and Henderson would let the deadline pass, leaving the No. 3 pick in the final year of a rookie contract worth about $44 million in total. Blazers general manager Joe Cronin had signaled as much at media day: he called an extension “tricky” because Henderson is “a high-variance player,” while also calling him “a high-priority player” and noting, “We still have one more offseason to deal with it if we need to.”

The roster explains some of the hesitation. According to whynba.com, Portland’s backcourt also includes Damian Lillard, Ja Morant and Jrue Holiday, and Henderson is expected to play a combo-guard role off the bench under first-year coach Micah Nori — a difficult platform from which a top-three pick builds leverage for a payday.

Orlando’s math, not Black’s game, drove the wait

Anthony Black is the clearest case of a team waiting for financial, not basketball, reasons. Black averaged career highs of 15.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 64 games last season, according to whynba.com. Yet Marc Stein reported, via Hoops Rumors, that while Orlando has no desire to trade the 22-year-old guard, the Magic are not positioned to add another large contract alongside Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane — all earning more than $32 million this season — and are expected to negotiate with Black as a restricted free agent next summer.

According to the Orlando Sentinel, as cited by whynba.com, Orlando already has $161.2 million committed for 2027-28 to those four players, and adding Wendell Carter Jr.’s $19.5 million puts the total above $180 million for five players. Magic president Jeff Weltman hinted at the strategy on media day, in remarks quoted by Hoops Rumors: “You guys know that we’re in a lot tighter quarters (financially) than we’ve been in years past. … (Deals) don’t always get done right now. Sometimes they get done later, so we’ll see.” Hoops Rumors’ deadline preview added that ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported Orlando had been unwilling to give Black the $22 million per year Brandin Podziemski got from Golden State.

Coulibaly, Lively, Jaquez — and a long list behind them

Coulibaly, the No. 7 pick, rounds out the unsigned top seven: whynba.com reported Washington values him for his defense, but his shooting and limited offense held down his extension price. In Dallas, the wait had a medical dimension — whynba.com reported Dereck Lively II has not been medically cleared after December foot surgery and has played 98 of a possible 246 regular-season games in three years. Jaime Jaquez Jr., the No. 18 pick, finished second in last season’s Sixth Man of the Year voting with Miami, according to whynba.com, and arrived in Milwaukee in July in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade; Bucks GM Jon Horst said in late September, as quoted by whynba.com, “We may or may not do an extension, and that’s OK.” The rest of the unsigned 14, per whynba.com: Gradey Dick, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Kris Murray, Brice Sensabaugh and Julian Strawther.

Clowney wasn’t even offered one

The New York Post reported that Noah Clowney did not get a rookie extension from the Brooklyn Nets — “sources told The Post” he was not offered one at all. The Post reported Clowney averaged 12.3 points and started 60 games last season; now the arrival of Julius Randle drops him to the bench, and he heads into restricted free agency in a prove-it year, in a new role, with fewer minutes to prove it in. Clowney is saying the right things: “I mean, realistically, we’re professionals. You should be able to adjust to a new role,” he told the Post.

Why teams waited, and what happens next

Read together, the reasons cluster. Orlando’s books are full. Dallas is waiting on a medical clearance. Portland is waiting on certainty about a high-variance guard in a crowded backcourt. Washington is waiting on a jumper. And every one of these teams keeps the strongest card in restricted free agency: the right to match any offer, in a system where about 62 percent of these players historically re-sign with the team that waited.

For the players, the bet is the mirror image: a strong contract year can beat anything offered this fall, and next summer’s market will now feature a No. 3, a No. 6 and a No. 7 pick, plus a Sixth Man runner-up. The 2023 class was supposed to be defined by who got paid on Monday. It may end up defined by who gets paid next July. Track the season that decides it on our NBA hub.