Lions at Cardinals Week 5 preview: Detroit heads to the desert chasing a shootout — and a road win

The short version: The Detroit Lions fly west to Glendale on Sunday to face the Arizona Cardinals in a game nobody expects to be pretty — and everybody expects to be loud. Kickoff is 4:25 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium, on FOX, and if the numbers are any indication, bring a calculator: the oddsmakers hung a total of 54.5, one of the highest of the week, and the Lions are favored by 5.5 despite sitting at 2-2 with an 0-2 road record.

The road problem

Here is the thing about this Lions team: they have not figured out how to win outside Ford Field yet. Detroit is 2-2, and both losses came on the road — most recently a 32-26 stumble at Carolina in Week 4, the week after a roller-coaster Sunday night loss that left the whole fan base staring at the ceiling. The pattern is not subtle. The Lions have scored at least 24 points in every single game this season. They have also allowed at least 24 in every single game. When you play every week like it is a video game with the sliders cranked, road trips get weird.

Arizona, for its part, has been the host of somebody's road problem three weeks running. The Cardinals are 1-3, losers of three straight, and they have given up 30 or more points in each of those defeats — including a 36-24 Week 4 loss to the Giants. The Cardinals are 0-1 at State Farm Stadium this season. There is nothing about that resume that scares you. But there is something about that 54.5 total that should make Detroit fans nervous, because it tells you the oddsmakers think Arizona can score, too.

Detroit's offense is fine. Detroit's defense is the story.

Let's start with what is working, because a lot is working. Jared Goff has his full band back together. Jahmyr Gibbs can end your afternoon on any snap. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the most reliable chain-mover in the building. Jameson Williams is the deep threat who makes defensive coordinators lose sleep, and Sam LaPorta is the tight end who makes third-and-6 feel like a formality. On paper, this is one of the most complete collections of skill talent in the league, and NFL.com's Bucky Brooks expects those weapons to bounce back loud this week after a frustrating couple of outings.

The problem is the other side of the ball, and it is not a small one. Detroit's defense has been one of the worst scoring defenses in football through four weeks. Scoring 24-plus every week is the fun kind of stat. Allowing 24-plus every week is the kind that gets you sitting at 2-2 when you expected to be looking down at the division. The Lions do not have a "hold on for dear life" gear right now. Every game is a shootout because the defense keeps inviting the other team into one.

Arizona can score — that's the scary part

It is easy to look at 1-3 and three straight losses and write the Cardinals off. Do not. Arizona can put points on the board, and they do it with a veteran quarterback in Jacoby Brissett who is not going to panic when the pace picks up. Brissett's favorite targets are tight end Trey McBride and wide receiver Michael Wilson, and against a Detroit defense that has been generous to everyone, that is a real matchup problem.

The Cardinals' issue has not been the scoreboard — it has been the scoreboard in the wrong color. They keep getting into these track meets and running out of track. Brooks' advice for Arizona is blunt: they have to find the end zone, not settle for field goals. In a game where the total is pushing 55, trading touchdowns for field goals is how you lose 40-31. The Cardinals know it. Whether they can do anything about it against an angry Lions offense is the whole question.

The matchup math

So here is how the people who set the numbers see it. The Lions opened around 4.5 and the number has been bet up to 5.5 in most places, with Detroit sitting at about -245 on the moneyline. That is a healthy favorite price for a team that is 0-2 on the road with a leaky defense. The reason it is healthy is the talent gap: Detroit has more proven playmakers on both sides of the ball, and the market trusts that the offense will outscore its own defense's problems.

That 54.5 total is the loudest number on the board. It is one of the highest totals of the week, and it tells you exactly what kind of game everyone is expecting. Neither defense has shown it can get a stop when it matters. Both offenses have shown they can get a first down when they need one. When you put those two facts together, you get a number like 54.5 — and you get a game where the first team to punt twice might be in trouble.

The matchup inside the matchup is Arizona's passing game against Detroit's secondary. McBride is the kind of tight end who has given this Lions defense fits, and Wilson is the kind of receiver who does his best work when the game turns into backyard football. If Detroit cannot generate pressure on Brissett, the Cardinals are going to hang around. And a 1-3 home underdog with nothing to lose, playing in front of a stadium that gets loud for exactly this kind of game, is the classic trap door for a good team that thinks it just has to show up.

What the experts see

The expert consensus is about as one-sided as it gets. ESPN's Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Jeremy Fowler, and Dan Graziano all landed on the Lions in their picks roundup. Over at CBS, Pete Prisco went with Detroit too — and he put a number on it, calling for a 40-31 Lions win that would send the total soaring over. Brooks at NFL.com is in the same camp: he sees plenty of offense on both sides and trusts Detroit's firepower to be the difference.

That near-unanimity is worth taking seriously, and it is also worth taking carefully. When everyone agrees the favorite wins a shootout, the favorite usually does — but the shootout part is what burns people. A 40-31 game means both teams score, both teams cover in a lot of prop markets, and one weird bounce turns a comfortable win into a backdoor cover. The experts say the Lions win. Nobody is saying it will be boring.

Previously's Michigan sports desk tracks the Lions every week. Read more local sports from every state.