Red Flag Warning for LA and Ventura: Santa Ana Gusts to 70 mph, Humidity to 5 Percent

LOS ANGELES

Southern California's first Santa Ana wind event of the season arrives Thursday morning, and the National Weather Service has put much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties under a Red Flag Warning from 6 a.m. Thursday, October 15, through 10 p.m. Friday, October 16 — a stretch of strong offshore winds, single-digit humidity in places and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and 90s that forecasters say can turn any spark into a fast-moving fire.

The warning, issued by the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, covers the Malibu coast, Calabasas and Agoura Hills, the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Ventura County's beaches, inland coast and valleys, and the Santa Monica, Santa Susana and San Gabriel mountains. Forecasters expect northeast to east winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph across much of the warned area, and isolated gusts of 50 to 70 mph in the wind-prone hills and mountain passes.

The Season's First Santa Ana

The Desert Sun reported that offshore winds began brushing the mountain foothills on Wednesday, with the event strengthening Thursday and the strongest, most widespread winds expected Friday. Chandler Price, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, told the paper this is a fairly strong event for the season's first — tempered only slightly by recent rain, which left fuels less primed than they might otherwise be, though the dry air moving in behind the winds will quickly erase that help.

The National Weather Service expects conditions to peak from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon before weakening through the weekend, though the windiest locations could see Red Flag conditions linger into Saturday. Humidity minimums of 5 to 15 percent are expected to be common across the warned area, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Friday in the interior mountains of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties as the event expands north.

Power Shutoffs on the Table for 125,000 in Ventura County

The wind also puts power lines under scrutiny. The Ventura County Star reported that Southern California Edison is monitoring nearly 90 circuits across Ventura County for possible Public Safety Power Shutoffs — deliberate de-energizing of lines so equipment cannot spark a fire in the wind. As of Wednesday, the monitored areas included nearly 125,000 Ventura County customers, in and around Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Fillmore, Ojai, Camarillo, Ventura and the Santa Monica Mountains. A community alert from Ventura County Supervisor Jeff Gorell's office put the period of concern from midnight Thursday through 6 p.m. Friday.

In Malibu, the city has notified residents that Edison is considering shutoffs on four circuits — Cuthbert, Galahad, Maguire and Merlin — beginning as early as midnight Thursday. The New York Post, in its coverage of Wednesday morning's Brentwood brush fire, likewise flagged the four Malibu circuits as candidates for shutoffs as the winds build. Edison typically makes final shutoff decisions 24 to 48 hours ahead of peak conditions, so customers in the monitored areas should expect direct notice from the utility if their circuit is selected.

Fire Agencies Staff Up, Parklands Close Under a New Protocol

Los Angeles County is activating its Emergency Operations Center on Thursday and augmenting fire staffing for the duration of the warning, according to the county. The Ventura County Star reported that the Ventura County Fire Department is doing the same on its side of the line — spokesman Andrew Dowd told the paper the department is staffing extra fire engines, extra water tenders and additional firefighters throughout its wildland division so resources are in place if a fire starts.

MyNewsLA reported that hiking trails and parklands across the Santa Monica Mountains could close beginning Thursday under a new coordinated closure protocol — the first time the system will be used. The National Park Service, California State Parks, the Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy and the Mountains Recreation and Conservation Authority built the protocol so closures land consistently across the patchwork of agencies that manage the range. Parks that could see closures include Topanga and Malibu Creek state parks in Los Angeles County, Leo Carrillo and Point Mugu state parks, and Will Rogers and Santa Susana Pass state historic parks, with final decisions made by each managing agency.

Why This Week's Timing Matters

The warning arrives hours after Los Angeles got a preview of the danger: an early-morning brush fire near the VA's West Los Angeles campus in Brentwood burned about an acre and a half before Los Angeles Fire Department crews, working from the ground and the air, stopped its forward progress in roughly an hour. No structures were threatened and no one was hurt — but the fire ignited in the dark, in dense brush, a day before the winds that could have carried it arrived. Our full report on the Brentwood fire is here.

For residents in the warned areas, officials' guidance is the standard Red Flag drill: secure outdoor furniture and anything the wind can carry, charge phones and medical devices in case of shutoffs, keep flashlights and batteries handy, and avoid anything that can throw a spark — no outdoor burning, no yard work with metal blades during the wind, and no parking on dry grass. The warning runs through 10 p.m. Friday, and the National Weather Service will update it as the event unfolds.

Follow continuing coverage on Previously's news hub — and if you are heading into the hills this weekend, check the live page for the latest conditions before you go.