Oklahoma City and San Antonio are co-favorites at +270, and the rivalry between them is the league’s best new theater. Last June's title ended more than half a century of waiting at Madison Square Garden and reset the league's power map. Now comes the harder part — everyone is coming for the crown, and the oddsmakers believe the road to it still runs through the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City and San Antonio are co-favorites at +270, and the rivalry between them is the league's best new theater. The Thunder are the 2025 champions, winners of 64 games last season, and the team that looked ready to become the first repeat champion since 2018 — until injuries derailed them and the Spurs took the Western Conference finals in seven games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the two-time reigning MVP, coming off a 31.1-point-per-game season on 55 percent shooting, and the core of SGA, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren is all back. But the supporting cast looks different: Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe were all traded away, with the Thunder banking seven second-round picks and a bet on internal development — "a player development machine," in Mark Daigneault's words. Draft picks Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz join the pipeline, Isaiah Hartenstein re-signed, and a healthier Williams, limited to 33 games last season, could be the swing factor. The over/under is 62.5 wins. The standard, as the Oklahoma City press puts it, doesn't change.
The team standing in their way is the future arriving early. Victor Wembanyama's Spurs took the West last spring and are priced alongside OKC to finish the job. San Antonio versus Oklahoma City is the heavyweight rivalry the decade has been waiting for: the most talented young core of the era against the most talented young player on the planet. If the basketball gods are kind, they meet in May with everything on the line.
The East is chaos, and it's glorious. Philadelphia executed the offseason's biggest remodel, adding Jaylen Brown and LeBron James — 41 years old and still moving the needle like no one ever has — to a core of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. The 76ers are +900, tied with the champion Knicks for the East's best odds. Boston, which traded Brown to Philly, still sits at +1300 on the strength of its infrastructure and a full season of Jayson Tatum. And Miami went nuclear: a blockbuster for two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (+3000) that instantly makes the Heat the conference's wild card — a team nobody wants to see in April.
Elsewhere, Cleveland (+2200) added Peyton Watson in a sign-and-trade to a roster that believes its window is now. Denver, the 2023 champions, brought in DeMar DeRozan and Marvin Bagley III while losing Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown and Jonas Valanciunas — the 49.5-win over/under is the oddsmakers' way of calling it a transition year. Every contender in the league did the math this summer and decided the time is now, which is what happens when the throne looks gettable.
The individual races are appointment viewing on their own. Gilgeous-Alexander chasing a third straight MVP would put him in historic company — only the game's immortals have done it. Wembanyama's annual leap is the league's most reliable marvel; every season he adds something that shouldn't be possible at his size. And LeBron James, in year twenty-four, playing meaningful basketball alongside Embiid and Maxey in Philadelphia — every season was supposed to be the last one, and then he goes and joins a superteam instead of fading out. The farewell tour keeps getting postponed, and the league is better for it.
Then there's the parity question that defines the modern NBA. The play-in tournament means the regular season's final weeks are a knife fight from seeds six through ten in both conferences. The apron rules mean no one can simply buy their way out of trouble anymore — every contender is one bad contract from the tax hell that forced Oklahoma City to move three rotation players. That's why this season feels so wide open: the Knicks proved a well-built team can break through, the Thunder proved 64 wins guarantees nothing, and a dozen front offices spent the summer convincing themselves they're one move away. Some of them are right.
What to watch beyond the standings: opening night's ring ceremony at the Garden, the third edition of the Emirates NBA Cup, and the Christmas Day slate that always sorts contenders from pretenders. The league has a defending champion for the first time in a generation that isn't a superteam — and a dozen teams that believe this is their year. Sixty-four wins didn't even get Oklahoma City to the Finals last season. The bar has never been higher, and October can't come fast enough.
Editor’s note: this guide originally appeared atop Previously’s NBA team directory. It is preserved here in full — every team page it pointed to now lives on the NBA hub. The lines, records and transactions cited in this guide are as published by ESPN and Basketball Reference.
