One Week to the Deadline: Jonathan Taylor Tops the Board, and Everybody Else Is Posturing

There is a particular sound the NFL makes in the week before the trade deadline, and it is not the sound of deals. It is the sound of everybody explaining, on the record, why the deal you are imagining is not going to happen — right up until the moment it does. Tuesday morning, one week out from the Nov. 10 deadline at 4 p.m. ET, the league was in full voice.

Start with what is already done, because the biggest move of deadline season may already be behind us. Last week the Chicago Bears sent Tennessee a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fourth-rounder for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and a 2028 fifth, according to NBC Sports' deadline tracker. Four days later, Simmons was in a Bears uniform at Lumen Field, wrecking the defending champions. In Monday night's 34-17 win over the Seattle Seahawks, Simmons tied for the team lead with six tackles and added a sack, two tackles for loss and a pass defensed, per USA TODAY. Bears coach Ben Johnson said afterward: "You can feel his presence out there." "To come in there and have a share of the lead of tackles and a sack in his first game, his impact was profound." That is the deadline working exactly the way buyers hope it works — and it is the advertisement every other front office in the league is now staring at.

Indianapolis is the league's open house

If Simmons was the board's top name, the board has a new top name, and he plays for the team doing most of the selling. The Athletic's Daniel Popper, whose trade board ranked Simmons first in October, updated the list Tuesday with Colts running back Jonathan Taylor at No. 1, per Heavy. The case is not subtle. "Taylor is one of the best running backs in the league and has been for some time," Popper writes. "Since he was drafted in 2020, Taylor has more scrimmage yards than all RBs except for Derrick Henry. He is the type of explosive player who could change an offense."

The Colts, in Popper's words, "are in sell mode after firing GM Chris Ballard." They have already moved two of the top five names on his original board: guard Quenton Nelson went to Seattle for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth, and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner went to San Francisco for a 2027 fourth, per NBC Sports. Taylor is the harder decision, because there is no clock forcing it. He signed a two-year extension in August and is under contract through 2028; Indianapolis would take on $10 million in dead money in 2027 by trading him, which Popper notes is "not preventive" — an obstacle, not a wall. And the price is already real: the Colts have reportedly turned down an offer of a second-round pick and then some for Taylor, according to The Ringer's Tom Pelissero, via Heavy. Popper lists four potential landing spots — Cincinnati, which has not gotten enough from Chase Brown; the Giants and their revolving door at running back; Minnesota and its aging, injured backfield; and Seattle, though that fit cooled a little with the Seahawks' backs returning Monday night. Expiring contracts in Indianapolis, like wide receiver Josh Downs and defensive tackle Grover Stewart, still look highly likely to move, per Heavy. Taylor is the one that would shake the league.

The buyers are talking like buyers talk

The New York Giants, 4-2-1 and atop the NFC East, are the week's most entertaining shoppers. Coach John Harbaugh confirmed Monday that he personally left a message for Tennessee Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk while New York was chasing Simmons — a head coach calling another team's owner about a trade is not standard procedure, and Harbaugh made no apology for it. Harbaugh said: "I did, I left a message. Why? Because we're turning over every stone… We're open for any call." But on Tuesday the message tightened: the Giants want help, not a rental. Harbaugh said, per USA TODAY: "It wouldn't want to be a one-and-done kind of thing." "You want to have a short-term and a long-term win if you're going to do it with draft capital." He was blunt about the budget, too — New York does not have a pile of picks to burn and has to be, in his words, a smart shopper, with a preference for spending 2028 capital because it is "easier to put it on the credit card." A runner under contract through 2028 fits that description rather precisely, which is why Taylor's name keeps landing in East Rutherford whether the Colts cooperate or not.

Elsewhere, the doors are being closed — loudly, which in deadline week means almost nothing. In Dallas, owner Jerry Jones used his Tuesday radio appearance to cool his own fan base down: Jones said, per USA TODAY, when asked about further Cowboys moves: "At this particular time, I don't see anything." In Los Angeles, where the Chargers sit at 0-7 and should be the deadline's most obvious seller, Jim Harbaugh planted a flag around 35-year-old edge rusher Khalil Mack, who is on an expiring contract and played a season-low 35 snaps in Sunday's loss to the Rams. Harbaugh said Monday: "I want Khalil Mack here. Khalil Mack wants to be here. He's one of the pillars of our team." The Jets, per NBC Sports, have rebuffed interest in wide receiver Garrett Wilson and are not expected to deal their top wideout. Arizona safety Budda Baker says he has neither asked to be traded nor asked not to be. Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr. keeps surfacing as a name to watch. And a new name joined the board Tuesday: Saints tight end Juwan Johnson, No. 12 on Popper's updated list, per Heavy — a 2-5 New Orleans team that has lost four of five, a tight end coming off career highs of 77 catches and 889 yards in 2025, no guaranteed money after this season, and Cleveland and Minnesota listed as fits.

What the Simmons debut actually proved

Here is the thing nobody in a front office will say out loud this week: the Simmons debut changed the math for everyone else. Deadline trades are usually sold as March help — a piece for the stretch, a body for a rotation. Simmons walked into the loudest stadium in the league, against the defending champions, in a defense he had known for four days, and was arguably the best player on the field in a statement win. Every general manager with a 6-2 roster and a hole on the interior line watched that and did the arithmetic on what a Taylor, or a Thomas, or a Baker might look like in their uniform in January. Every general manager holding a star on a losing team watched it and raised the price a little.

One week. That is all that is left — seven days of coaches calling owners, owners saying nothing is happening, and at least one more Simmons-sized surprise almost certainly sitting in somebody's drafts folder. The deadline is Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET. Believe the denials at your own risk.