NFL Sunday Preview: Three Perfect Records, One Missing MVP, and a Revenge Game in Seattle

The Card — Our Picks, All 11 Games

• Colts at Vikings (10 AM PT, CBS): Vikings -6.5 — the league's best defense (64 points allowed in five games) against a Colts team missing its top corner and its tight end.
• 49ers at Falcons (10 AM PT, Fox): 49ers -2.5 — take the unbeaten team; Atlanta is 0-3 at home.
• Bengals at Ravens (10 AM PT, CBS): Bengals -3 — Lamar Jackson is out. Joe Burrow is not.
• Buccaneers at Panthers (10 AM PT, Fox): Panthers -3 — Tampa Bay's injury report is the preview.
• Browns at Titans (10 AM PT, CBS): Browns -2.5, under 36.5 — Cleveland's defense travels, and Tennessee scores 14 points a game.
• Dolphins at Jets (10 AM PT, CBS): Jets -3.5 — winless Miami is without De'Von Achane, its best player, who is on injured reserve.
• Giants at Texans (10 AM PT, Fox): Texans to win, Giants +10.5 — Houston gets its first home win, but ten and a half is too many.
• Broncos at Cardinals (1:05 PM PT, CBS): Broncos -4.5 — Arizona has given up 178 points, as many as any team on today's slate.
• Packers at Lions (1:25 PM PT, Fox): Lions to win, Packers +3.5, over 55.5 — the shootout of the day; take the hook.
• Rams at Raiders (1:25 PM PT, Fox): Rams -3.5 — Matthew Stafford's passing volume against a team that has lost three straight.
• Chiefs at Seahawks (5:20 PM PT, NBC): Chiefs +3, and Chiefs outright — the champs, getting points, with the league's leading rusher coming home.

Odds throughout are from Previously's own odds board, pulled Sunday morning. Every pick below is the desk's argued call — no model, no percentages, just the matchup as we read it.

Already Underway — Paris

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-4), Stade de France, NFL Network. The league's first game in France kicked off at 6:30 AM PT, and it is tied 10-10 late in the first half: Chris Boswell's 28-yard field goal opened the scoring, Daniel Carlson answered from 38 yards to tie it 3-3, Aaron Rodgers hit Darnell Washington for a 4-yard touchdown to put the Steelers back in front, and Tyler Shough tied it again with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Devaughn Vele. Pittsburgh arrived on a two-game win streak; New Orleans, 0-3 at “home” this season, is the designated home team in Saint-Denis. Follow it live in the Game Center.

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

10 AM PT · CBS · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

What to watch. Minnesota is 5-0 the hard way: the Vikings have allowed 64 points in five games — 12.8 a game, the stingiest defense playing today — and won with defense all season: 9-3 over Chicago, 15-10 over Miami, 23-16 over Tampa Bay, 23-13 over New Orleans, plus one 39-22 statement against Green Bay. Dallas Turner (5.5 sacks) leads the rush, Aaron Jones (410 rushing yards) drives a run-first offense, and Justin Jefferson (19 catches, 258 yards, 3 TD) is the one-play problem every defense has to solve first. Indianapolis is the opposite shape: fun, flawed, and fading. The Colts have lost two straight, including 26-20 at Tennessee last week, and Daniel Jones (1,290 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT) has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor (492 yards, 7 TD) is the Colts' entire argument — if he goes off, this is a game; if Minnesota's front wins early downs, it is not.

Injuries. Indianapolis is missing two starters who change the scouting report: cornerback Sauce Gardner (out, strain) and tight end Tyler Warren (out) are both sidelined, along with receiver Anthony Gould (out, concussion) and linebacker CJ Allen (out); linebacker Bryce Boettcher is questionable. Minnesota's report is all injured-reserve names (guard Donovan Jackson, tight end Josh Oliver among them) — no Viking starter is questionable.

Odds (our board). Vikings -6.5 (-115) · Moneyline: MIN -325 / IND +260 · Total 41.5.

Our pick: Vikings win and cover -6.5. The Colts' two best matchup answers — Gardner on Jefferson, Warren in the middle — are both out, and Jones has been a turnover waiting to happen against pressure. Minnesota's defense is the surest thing on today's slate.

Game Center: Colts at Vikings

San Francisco 49ers (6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

10 AM PT · Fox · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

What to watch. The last unbeaten team in the NFC goes on the road, and the 49ers have earned the record: 177 points scored, wins at Seattle (32-29) and Denver (24-14), and a Brock Purdy season line — 1,460 yards, 14 touchdowns, 2 interceptions — that any quarterback in the league would sign for. Christian McCaffrey (350 rushing yards, 7 TD) and Mike Evans (27 catches, 420 yards, 3 TD) give Purdy answers everywhere. Atlanta is the league's strangest team: 45 points against New Orleans and 35 against Green Bay in wins, three points against Carolina in a loss, and an 0-3 record in its own building. Bijan Robinson (111 carries, 641 yards, 4 TD) against a San Francisco front missing its best player is where this game is decided.

Injuries. San Francisco is without defensive end Nick Bosa (out, strain) — the single biggest absence in this game — plus linebackers Garret Wallow and Luke Gifford (out) and safety Marques Sigle (out); cornerback Upton Stout is questionable. Atlanta's list is a questionable pile: receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. (hamstring), edge Za'Darius Smith (3.5 sacks) and cornerback Avieon Terrell are all game-time decisions.

Odds (our board). 49ers -2.5 (-115) · Moneyline: SF -148 / ATL +124 · Total 50.5.

Our pick: 49ers win and cover -2.5; lean under 50.5. Bosa's absence gives Michael Penix Jr. (944 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) time, and Robinson will get his — but Atlanta has not won at home all season, and Purdy's two-interception season travels. San Francisco's defense, even short-handed, is the better unit in the fourth quarter.

Game Center: 49ers at Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)

10 AM PT · CBS · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore

What to watch. This was the game of the early window until the injury report came out. Baltimore and Cincinnati are playing for first place in an AFC North where three teams sit at 4-2 — and the Ravens will play it without the most important player on either roster. Joe Burrow (1,361 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) leads a Bengals team that has won two of three, including a 20-6 throttling of Houston, with Tee Higgins (27 catches, 423 yards) as his top target. Baltimore's counter is Derrick Henry (130 carries, 534 yards, 7 TD) and a defense that has to win a game the offense usually steals. The Ravens are 4-2 with wins at Dallas and Atlanta; the question is how much of that travels without No. 8.

Injuries. Baltimore: quarterback Lamar Jackson is out (sprain), per ESPN's injury report; safety Jaylinn Hawkins is also out, defensive tackle Broderick Washington Jr. is questionable, and the injured-reserve list includes linebacker Tavius Robinson and cornerback T.J. Tampa. Jackson's backups on the roster are Tyler Huntley, Joe Fagnano and Skylar Thompson (day-to-day) — Baltimore had not named a starter at build time. Cincinnati's report is injured-reserve only (tight end Tanner Hudson, receiver Andrei Iosivas among them); every Bengals starter is available.

Odds (our board). Bengals -3 (-105) · Moneyline: CIN -148 / BAL +124 · Total 46.5. Cincinnati favored on the road in Baltimore tells you what the number thinks of the Jackson news.

Our pick: Bengals win and cover -3. Henry keeps Baltimore in it and the home crowd keeps it loud, but a first-place game with Burrow upright and Jackson in a sweatsuit is not a fair fight. This is why the line flipped to the visitors.

Game Center: Bengals at Ravens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)

10 AM PT · Fox · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte

What to watch. Carolina wakes up Sunday in first place in the NFC South and playing like it: two straight wins, Bryce Young at 1,549 yards with 11 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, Tetairoa McMillan (32 catches, 471 yards) playing like a franchise receiver, and a 34-3 demolition of Atlanta on the résumé. Tampa Bay is the division's cautionary tale — 1-5, losers of four of five, 0-4 at home — and the Bucs arrive in Charlotte with the worst injury report on today's slate. If Young and Chuba Hubbard (426 rushing yards, 4 TD) control the afternoon, Carolina's strange season becomes a real one.

Injuries. Tampa Bay: receiver Emeka Egbuka (out, concussion), safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (out, fracture) and tackle Luke Goedeke (out) are all sidelined, and quarterback Baker Mayfield is questionable (dislocated) — he has thrown for 615 yards with 2 TD and 2 INT in a season already interrupted once. Carolina is comparatively whole: linebacker Jaelan Phillips is out and tackle Monroe Freeling is questionable, with running back Jonathon Brooks headlining the injured-reserve list.

Odds (our board). Panthers -3 (-108) · Moneyline: CAR -166 / TB +140 · Total 44.5.

Our pick: Panthers win and cover -3. A 1-5 team, down its top receiver and its best defensive back, with its quarterback one hit from the bench, on the road against the division leader — the number feels a field goal too kind.

Game Center: Buccaneers at Panthers

Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-5)

10 AM PT · CBS · Nissan Stadium, Nashville

What to watch. Nobody will put this on a poster, and somebody is going to watch it anyway, because Cleveland's defense is becoming a story: the Browns have won four of five — 23-19 over Tampa Bay, 21-18 over Carolina, 27-24 over Pittsburgh, 13-10 over Baltimore — allowing 122 points in six games with Mason Graham (4 sacks) wrecking the middle. Deshaun Watson (1,174 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT) has been careful, which is all this defense asks. Tennessee, 1-5 and 0-3 at home, finally won last week (26-20 over Indianapolis) behind rookie Cam Ward (998 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT), but the Titans score 14 points a game, fewest of any team playing today.

Injuries. Cleveland: defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr. is out and linebacker Quincy Williams is questionable; quarterback Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, so Watson's job is uncontested. Tennessee's offense could be thinner still: receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tyjae Spears and safeties Tony Adams and Kevin Winston Jr. are all questionable.

Odds (our board). Browns -2.5 (-108) · Moneyline: CLE -130 / TEN +110 · Total 36.5 — the lowest number on the board, and it is earned.

Our pick: Browns win and cover -2.5; under 36.5. Cleveland has played the same game five weeks running — low, late, theirs. Tennessee's one win came against a Colts team that has lost the plot; this defense is a different exam for a rookie quarterback.

Game Center: Browns at Titans

Miami Dolphins (0-5) at New York Jets (2-4)

10 AM PT · CBS · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

What to watch. The only winless team left in football goes to play its oldest rival, and the week somehow got worse in Miami: the Dolphins have scored 70 points in five games, Malik Willis (849 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) is playing quarterback by necessity, and the one player who could change a Sunday by himself is on injured reserve. The Jets are nobody's idea of a juggernaut at 2-4, but Geno Smith (1,336 yards, 7 TD, 1 INT) has protected the ball, Garrett Wilson (35 catches, 418 yards, 3 TD) is a weekly problem, and New York's losses include an overtime game against Green Bay and a seven-point game against Detroit. Somebody's season ends today, even if the schedule says otherwise.

Injuries. Miami: running back De'Von Achane is on injured reserve (surgery) — season over, and with him goes the Dolphins' best player. Cornerback Reese Taylor is out, defensive end Robert Beal Jr. is doubtful and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. is questionable. The Jets could be thin in the backfield — Breece Hall is questionable, as is returner Kene Nwangwu — and tackle Max Mitchell (concussion) and edge Joseph Ossai are out.

Odds (our board). Jets -3.5 (-115) · Moneyline: NYJ -218 / MIA +180 · Total 39.5.

Our pick: Jets win and cover -3.5. If Breece Hall's status scares you, it scares us a little too — but Miami has no equivalent of Garrett Wilson, no healthy version of its offense, and no win. The Jets end the Dolphins' perfect season of losing.

Game Center: Dolphins at Jets

New York Giants (3-2-1) at Houston Texans (2-4)

10 AM PT · Fox · Reliant Stadium, Houston

What to watch. The strangest line of the day. Houston is 2-4, winless at home, and favored by double digits — because the Texans' numbers keep insisting they are better than their record: C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,714 yards with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Will Anderson Jr. (7.5 sacks) leads a pass rush that ruins game plans. The Giants, meanwhile, sit in first place in the NFC East at 3-2-1 with Jameis Winston (957 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT) at quarterback, Malik Nabers (41 catches, 494 yards) as the offense's engine, and exactly zero road wins. Both secondaries are held together by reserves, which is either a Stroud showcase or a Winston shootout waiting to happen.

Injuries. Houston's secondary is the headline: safeties Jalen Pitre (out, sprain) and Reed Blankenship (out, concussion) are both sidelined, along with running back David Montgomery and tackle Blake Fisher (out). The Giants lose safety Jevon Holland (out, concussion) and tight end Theo Johnson (out), with tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and cornerback Paulson Adebo questionable; linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, their tackle and co-sack leader, is on injured reserve.

Odds (our board). Texans -10.5 (-108) · Moneyline: HOU -535 / NYG +400 · Total 42.5.

Our pick: Texans win; Giants cover +10.5. We believe in Stroud, Anderson and the eventual result — we do not believe a 2-4 team still looking for its first home win should be laying two scores against a first-place team, even a weird one. Houston by a touchdown, and the hook does its job.

Game Center: Giants at Texans

Denver Broncos (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

1:05 PM PT · CBS · State Farm Stadium, Glendale

What to watch. Denver has won four of five and does it without decoration: Bo Nix (1,049 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) manages, the defense — Zach Allen has 4.5 sacks — strangles, and the Broncos close (17-14 in overtime at Seattle, 23-17 over the Chargers). Arizona finally won last week, 18-16 over the Rams, after four straight losses, but the Cardinals have allowed 178 points, tied for the most of any team playing today, and Jacoby Brissett (1,328 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT) has been asked to outscore his own defense all season. Trey McBride (49 catches) is Arizona's one reliable thing. If Denver's defense travels, this is a long afternoon in the desert.

Injuries. Denver: safety Talanoa Hufanga is out, and cornerback Pat Surtain II is questionable (sprain) — his status swings Arizona's whole passing plan; running back Jonah Coleman is also questionable. Arizona: guard Jon Gaines II and safety Andrew Wingard (bruise) are out, with cornerback Max Melton, safety Budda Baker and quarterback Carson Beck all questionable.

Odds (our board). Broncos -4.5 (-115) · Moneyline: DEN -238 / ARI +195 · Total 42.5.

Our pick: Broncos win and cover -4.5. Even if Surtain sits, Denver's front against a leaky line and a 2-4 team that has spent a month losing close and ugly is the safer side. The Broncos are the steadier team in every quarter.

Game Center: Broncos at Cardinals

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-2)

1:25 PM PT · Fox · Ford Field, Detroit

What to watch. The game of the afternoon, and the numbers promise a track meet. Detroit scores 32.8 points a game — the most of any team playing today — behind Jared Goff (1,485 yards, 12 TD), Jahmyr Gibbs (105 carries, 504 yards, 7 TD) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (37 catches, 5 TD); the Lions are also 2-0 at home. Green Bay has won three straight, Jordan Love (1,684 yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) is dealing, and Christian Watson (29 catches, 538 yards, 6 TD) has become the league's most productive deep threat by yardage per catch. Green Bay's defense (20.8 points allowed a game) is comfortably the better of the two — Detroit has given up 148 — which is why this is a fight for the NFC North's soul and not just its standings.

Injuries. Detroit: safety Kerby Joseph is out — a real problem against Watson's deep shots — and the injured-reserve list runs long (linebacker Devin White, receiver Tom Kennedy among them). Green Bay: linebacker Zaire Franklin and tight end Luke Musgrave are out; guard Aaron Banks, receiver Bo Melton and defensive tackle Jordon Riley are questionable.

Odds (our board). Lions -3.5 at even money (+100) · Moneyline: DET -180 / GB +150 · Total 55.5 — the highest on the board by five points.

Our pick: Lions win; Packers cover +3.5; over 55.5. Detroit at home, with that offense, finds a way — but Green Bay's defense is good enough to keep it inside a field goal, and neither secondary is stopping both of these passing games for four quarters. The best watch of the afternoon window.

Game Center: Packers at Lions

Los Angeles Rams (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)

1:25 PM PT · Fox · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

What to watch. Two teams sliding toward each other. The Raiders have lost three straight — by three to Kansas City, by 28 to New England, by three to Buffalo — and their 3-3 is starting to look like a ceiling. The Rams have lost two straight, including last week's 18-16 stumble against Arizona, but their raw material is louder: Matthew Stafford leads every quarterback playing today with 1,794 passing yards (11 TD, 6 INT), Davante Adams has 480 yards and 4 TD, and Kyren Williams (393 yards, 4 TD) keeps defenses honest. Las Vegas counters with Kirk Cousins (1,582 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) and Brock Bowers (28 catches, 382 yards, 3 TD) — and a home crowd that has watched its team go 1-2 in this building.

Injuries. Los Angeles: receiver Puka Nacua is questionable — Stafford's favorite target, and his status moves this offense — as is cornerback Trent McDuffie; linebacker Nate Landman (their tackle leader) is out with a concussion, and the injured-reserve list includes Myles Garrett and Kobie Turner, so the Rams' front is a shadow of its billing. Las Vegas: running back Mike Washington Jr. and linebacker Quay Walker are questionable; tight end Carter Runyon and receivers Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech are on injured reserve.

Odds (our board). Rams -3.5 at even money (+100) · Moneyline: LAR -180 / LV +150 · Total 48.5.

Our pick: Rams win and cover -3.5. A road favorite with a 2-4 record is a smell test, and the Rams pass it: Stafford's volume against the league's most generous late-game defense, in a building where the home team keeps finding ways to lose the fourth quarter.

Game Center: Rams at Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3)

5:20 PM PT · NBC · Lumen Field, Seattle — Sunday Night Football

What to watch. Save the best for last, because the schedule did. Kansas City is 5-0, allowing 16.6 points a game, and Patrick Mahomes just banked his 100th career win in his 131st start last week — tying Tom Brady as the fastest to 100 since 1950, per NBC's game notes. But the night belongs to the running back beside him. Kenneth Walker III won the Super Bowl with Seattle eight months ago — 135 rushing yards and MVP honors in Super Bowl LX — then signed with Kansas City, and tonight he becomes the first reigning Super Bowl MVP ever to face his former team the following season. He arrives leading the entire NFL in rushing (665 yards, the most ever by a player through five games with a new team), with 760 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns, in the company of Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith and Priest Holmes on the all-time five-game list.

Across from him: the defending champions, and the league's receiving king. Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Walker's old teammate, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year — leads the NFL in catches (49), receiving yards (717) and receiving touchdowns (7), the full Triple Crown, and he just hung 12 catches for 132 yards on Denver last Thursday. Seattle's defense leads the league in yards allowed, per the week's preview coverage, and has picked off seven passes. The counterweight is Sam Darnold's other column: seven interceptions of his own, on a Seahawks team that has lost two straight and now plays its second consecutive primetime game. Kansas City's defense, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest catches to opposing wide receivers of any team this season, per USA TODAY's Week 7 breakdown — a direct collision with everything Seattle wants to do. The Chiefs and Seahawks have combined to win three of the last four Super Bowls. One of them leaves tonight looking like the favorite to win the next one.

Injuries. Kansas City: receiver Rashee Rice is out, as is tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion) — a real exposure against Seattle's front; cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is questionable, and tackles Josh Simmons headlines the injured-reserve list. Seattle: linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas are out; safety Nick Emmanwori (hip) and quarterback Drew Lock are questionable; tight end Elijah Arroyo is on injured reserve.

Odds (our board). Seahawks -3 at even money (+100) · Moneyline: SEA -148 / KC +124 · Total 42.5. Read that again: the 5-0 Chiefs, as underdogs. A $100 bet on Kansas City to win outright pays $124 in profit if they do it.

Our pick: Chiefs win outright, and Chiefs +3; lean under 42.5. Seattle at home in primetime is a real thing, and JSN is the best receiver alive right now. But Kansas City has the better defense for this specific matchup, the league's leading rusher running at his old team with a point to prove, and the quarterback who has made a career of exactly this spot. The dynasty doesn't blink on Sunday night.

Game Center: Chiefs at Seahawks

By the Numbers

• 3 — unbeaten teams playing today: San Francisco (6-0), Minnesota (5-0), Kansas City (5-0). Two of them (SF, KC) are on the road.
• 64 — points allowed by Minnesota in five games, 12.8 a game, the best defense on today's slate.
• 665 — Kenneth Walker III's rushing yards, most in the NFL and the most ever by a player through five games with a new team (NBC).
• 49 / 717 / 7 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba's catches, yards and touchdowns; he leads the league in all three.
• 36.5 — the Browns-Titans total, lowest on our board. 55.5 — the Packers-Lions total, the highest.
• 0 — home wins this season for Atlanta (0-3) and Houston (0-3), both at home today.